Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
