Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses something to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
